Airline Ambition Shift: Ryanair's Tactical Talk of Abandoning Boeing for Chinese Aircraft is (Currently) Insincere

Airline Ambition Shift: Ryanair's Tactical Talk of Abandoning Boeing for Chinese Aircraft is (Currently) Insincere

Ryanair, Europe's largest airline, has threatened to switch aircraft manufacturers from Boeing to Comac, a Chinese aviation company, due to a proposed tariff plan by former U.S. President Donald Trump. The potential shift could have a significant impact on the global and European aviation industry, given Ryanair's massive size and reliance on Boeing for its fleets.

Comac, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, is a promising but young player in the aviation sector, established in 2008. Its aircraft models, such as the C919, have been making steady progress, with more than a thousand orders on its books, primarily from Chinese airlines. However, these planes are not yet licensed to fly in European airspace, which presents a crucial hurdle for Ryanair's potential switch.

The C919, comparable in size to the Airbus A220neo and Boeing 737 MAX operational in Ryanair's fleet, has the advantage of being more affordable, with a catalogue price of around $9.9 million; this is about $6 million less than the Boeing 737 'NextGen' currently dominating Ryanair's fleet. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said in March that the Airline does not care who makes their planes as long as they are cheap enough.

However, there are significant obstacles to Ryanair's threat of canceling Boeing orders and turning to Comac. The most pressing issue is the long-awaited certification of the C919 by the European Union's Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), which is not expected until between 2028 and 2031. The agency's executive director, Florian Guillermet, has confirmed that the C919's certification process will take at least three to six years.

The high safety standards of European regulators make the certification process particularly challenging, especially for new aircraft manufacturers like Comac. EASA requires extensive testing and validation before granting approval, which can take years even for aircraft with a historical relationship between the regulator and manufacturer. In this case, the delay may render Ryanair's threat less significant, considering that its current Boeing order—signed in 2023—is not set to expire until 2033.

If and when EASA certifies the C919, it may still take some time before Comac planes arrive in Europe due to the lag between airline orders and deliveries, production customizations, and adds. Moreover, if Comac were to receive a substantial order from Ryanair, the company would need to rapidly expand its production capacity to meet European standards and cater to the demand of both Chinese and European airlines.

A switch to Comac planes could mark a significant moment for the European and global aviation industry. It would be perceived as a considerable challenge to Boeing and Airbus, intensifying the ongoing debate on America's and Europe's excessive reliance on Chinese production. However, such a move would also signify a substantial change for Ryanair, previously committed to a transition towards a Boeing-exclusive fleet as part of its low-cost model.

O'Leary's talk of buying Chinese planes is primarily driven by the desire to secure the cheapest possible deals for Ryanair. In the past, the airline has used this tactic to maximum effect, employing negotiations with multiple manufacturers and even fake conversations with competitors to obtain the best prices. If Boeing and Airbus fail to meet Ryanair's demands, there is a potential long-term scenario where Comac becomes a serious contender in the airline's plane market.

Boeing, therefore, does not have to worry about losing Ryanair as a customer immediately, but the American manufacturer should not let its guard down. Ryanair has been vocal about its dissatisfaction with Boeing's standards and delivery delays, which are already costing the airline money. If these issues persist, and if Comac can offer a viable, cost-effective alternative in the coming years, Ryanair might eventually turn to the Chinese manufacturer for future orders.

In summary, Ryanair's threat to switch to Comac aircraft is based on the potential for cheaper options, but the process is complicated by the delayed certification of the C919 by EASA. The long-term implications of Ryanair's potential move could reshape the European and global aviation industry, with significant implications for Boeing, Airbus, and the broader relationship between Europe and China.

1. The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) is a young player in the aviation sector, with its C919 aircraft models making steady progress, albeit not yet licensed to fly in European airspace.
2. EASA's certification process for the C919 is particularly challenging due to high safety standards and is not expected to be completed until between 2028 and 2031, potentially rendering Ryanair's threat less significant given its current Boeing order's expiration in 2033.
3. If and when EASA certifies the C919, Comac could become a serious contender in the European aviation industry, potentially reshaping the relationship between Europe and China and intensifying the ongoing debate on excessive reliance on Chinese production.
4. Boeing should not let its guard down regarding Ryanair's potential switch to Comac aircraft, as dissatisfaction with Boeing's standards and delivery delays could lead to future orders with the Chinese manufacturer if costs remain competitive.

Read also: