Anticipated Timeframe for Humanoid Robots: UBS Predicts Approximately 5 Years
The humanoid robotics industry is gearing up for significant growth and transformation in the coming years, according to a report by UBS Securities. The market value of this sector is predicted to range from US$1.4 trillion to US$1.7 trillion by 2025, with gradual progress expected in areas related to ageing societies, such as elderly care and labour shortages, as well as the reshaping of global manufacturing supply chains.
However, the industry is not yet at the turning point of an 'EV moment', a term defined by UBS analyst Phyllis Wang as a pivotal breakthrough when technological bottlenecks are resolved, enabling sales to increase from 1 million to 10 million units in five years. The anticipated 'EV moment' for humanoid robotics is projected around 2030, when the price of a humanoid robot could come down to approximately $100,000–$120,000, eventually declining further to about $23,000. This cost reduction is expected to trigger broader adoption, akin to a breakthrough moment similar to how electric vehicles (EVs) became mainstream.
Current limitations in the humanoid robotics sector are primarily financial and technological in nature. High current costs make humanoid robots inaccessible for wide market adoption. Challenges in scaling production and improving the technology to meet practical needs are also major factors hindering the disruption of household routines by humanoid robots within the next five years. Market skepticism and technical hurdles inherent in humanoid robotics compared to more mature sectors like EVs or autonomous driving also play a role.
Despite these challenges, the humanoid robotics sector has gained significant attention this year, with performances at China Central Television's New Year's Gala and appearances at sports competitions, marathons, and technology expos. Investments in humanoid robotics increased significantly in 2023, with the number of deals rising from six to 40 and the total investment value increasing from US$63 million to US$562 million.
Government policies have also accelerated the growth of the humanoid robotics sector. For instance, Premier Li Qiang's emphasis on "embodied intelligence" has fuelled the sector's development. Major cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai have fast-tracked dedicated industry funds, injecting capital into the emerging humanoid robotics sector.
UBS predicts that the global humanoid robot population will surpass 300 million by 2025, with annual demand for humanoid robots reaching 86 million units by that year. The 'EV moment' for humanoid robotics may not occur within the next five years, but UBS Securities and analysts see this as a major future growth area, potentially even larger than robotaxi markets.
Although the humanoid robotics sector is predicted to experience exponential growth in the coming years, it currently faces significant financial and technical challenges that hinder widespread adoption. Despite these obstacles, increasing investments, government support, and performances in sports competitions and technology expos are indicative of the sector's growing potential, with UBS Securities anticipating the humanoid robot population to exceed 300 million by 2025. On the horizon, artificial intelligence and environmental applications could play influential roles in the advancement and expansion of this sector, potentially even eclipsing the market size of robotaxi industries.
