Cryptocurrency analysts at Weiss signaling a hidden market indication for Bitcoin
In a recent analysis, Juan Villaverde, a Weiss Crypto analyst, has suggested that the price trend of gold could offer a unique lead signal for major turning points in Bitcoin's price cycles. Villaverde's proprietary back-testing and Crypto Timing Model indicate that gold's price movements often lead Bitcoin's by several months, providing a six-month advance signal for Bitcoin's major cycle highs and lows.
Villaverde has observed a consistent pattern where major lows and highs in gold’s price trends precede similar major turning points in Bitcoin’s price. For instance, gold’s significant low before December 2018 foreshadowed Bitcoin’s major low afterward.
The connection between the two assets, as explained by Villaverde, is rooted in global liquidity and macroeconomic trends influencing both. Gold historically acts as a precursor in this dynamic. Currently, the ongoing gold rally above $3,500 per ounce, reaching all-time highs, supports Villaverde’s projection that Bitcoin could peak around late November 2025, potentially in the range of $150,000 to $250,000.
It's worth noting that the lag between Bitcoin and this "little-known indicator" is approximately six months. Villaverde maintains that this anomaly reinforces his conviction, as exogenous geopolitical shocks can distort correlations but once the shock dissipates, the historic rhythm reasserts itself.
Moreover, Villaverde argues that his analysis focuses on the magnitude of turns, not just the direction, to capture investor psychology cycling from fear to greed and back again. This unique approach allows him to anticipate Bitcoin price cycle turning points half a year ahead, providing a lead signal that is rarely monitored in the cryptocurrency space.
In his initial post on 4 August 2025, Villaverde did not specify the "little-known indicator" but teased its potential significance. At press time, BTC traded at $114,522.
[1] Villaverde, J. (2025). A rarely discussed harbinger of Bitcoin price cycles. [Twitter]. Available at: https://twitter.com/juanvillaverde/status/1554745929757799424
[3] Villaverde, J. (2025). Gold and Bitcoin: A six-month lead signal for major turning points. [Weiss Crypto]. Available at: https://www.weisscryptocurrencyratings.com/gold-and-bitcoin-a-six-month-lead-signal-for-major-turning-points/
- Juan Villaverde's analysis, published on Weiss Crypto, suggests that gold's price movements may offer a six-month lead signal for major turning points in Bitcoin's price cycles.
- Villaverde's observations reveal a consistent pattern where major lows and highs in gold’s price trends precede similar turning points in Bitcoin’s price, such as the significant low before December 2018 foreshadowing Bitcoin’s major low afterward.
- The ongoing gold rally, reaching all-time highs above $3,500 per ounce, supports Villaverde’s projection that Bitcoin could peak around late November 2025, potentially in the range of $150,000 to $250,000.
- Villaverde argues that his unique approach, which focuses on the magnitude of turns and captures investor psychology cycling from fear to greed and back again, allows him to anticipate Bitcoin price cycle turning points half a year ahead.
- The lag between Bitcoin and this "little-known indicator," as Villaverde called it in his initial post on August 4, 2025, is approximately six months, although exogenous geopolitical shocks can distort correlations temporarily.
