Enhanced Storage Capacity and Larger QLC Data Center SSD Offered by New SanDisk
SanDisk, set to spin off from Western Digital, shared its expectations during an investor day event. The storage giant projected a growth of 20% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AI smartphones and edge inference, while generative AI and LLM training account for a staggering 29% CAGR.
Their analysis of the NAND industry Capex and Capital Intensity indicated a peak in 3D NAND capex spending in 2021, driven by the requirement of higher average capital spending to meet growth targets. SanDisk reiterated that the layers race has come to an end, leading to a significant reduction in capex spending across the industry.
The company anticipates a slowdown in NAND supply growth, predicting an undersupply versus demand by the second half of 2025. Besides memory layer count, SanDisk is investigating other methods to boost NAND flash capacity. Horizontal and logical scaling, such as CBA, can increase memory density, thereby lowering the cost per bit. SanDisk boasts leading capabilities in lateral, logical, and architectural scaling, allowing it to provide higher bit density at lower layer counts compared to competitors.
SanDisk's testing technology serves as a competitive advantage, benefiting from AI-assisted manufacturing testing innovations. The company, side by side with Kioxia, unveiled their next-generation 3D Flash Memory at the IEEE International Solid State Circuits Conference (ISSCC), showcasing factors like CMOS directly Bonded to Array, Power Isolated Low-Tapped Termination technology (PI-LTT), and separate Command Address protocol (SCA).
This next-generation NAND products promise a 33% increase in interface speed at 4.8Gb/s, with power consumption reductions of 10% for input and 34% for output. The 10th-generation 3D NAND will boast 332 memory layers, increasing bit density by 59% compared to the 8th generation product.
SanDisk also showcased its high-performance TLC data center SSDs at the investor day event and announced a new QLC capacity data center SSD with storage capacities up to 128TB, scheduled for shipping by Q3 2025.
In the face of its impending separation from WDC, SanDisk highlighted upcoming storage capacity announcements, predicted undersupply by 2025's second half, and announced its 128TB data center QLC SSD.
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According to SanDisk's investor day presentation, the NAND flash market is expected to face oversupply challenges in the first half of 2025 due to dwindling demand. However, the company forecasts that by the second half of 2025, demand will exceed supply, potentially propelling a recovery in prices.
Additionally, SanDisk is exploring High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) as a strategy to enhance NAND flash capacity and performance beyond increasing the layer count. HBF stacks multiple 3D NAND dies, including a logic layer for parallel access to memory sub-arrays, allowing for significantly higher capacity per stack compared to traditional implementations.
SanDisk aims to incorporate HBF as an open standard, incorporating mechanical and electrical interfaces similar to High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), for easier integration. While HBF faces challenges such as NAND's inherent write endurance limitations, SanDisk is investigating solutions like using pseudo-Single-Level Cell (pSLC) NAND to balance durability and cost.
- SanDisk, in anticipation of its spinoff from Western Digital, expects a 20% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in AI smartphones and edge inference, with generative AI and LLM training accounted for a staggering 29% CAGR.
- The company's analysis of the NAND industry Capex and Capital Intensity indicated a peak in 3D NAND capex spending in 2021, necessitating higher average capital spending to meet growth targets.
- SanDisk forecasts a slowdown in NAND supply growth, predicting an undersupply versus demand by the second half of 2025, which could potentially boost prices.
- Besides memory layer count, SanDisk is investigating High-Bandwidth Flash (HBF) as a strategy to enhance NAND flash capacity and performance beyond increasing the layer count.
- Incorporating HBF as an open standard, SanDisk aims to incorporate mechanical and electrical interfaces similar to High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), for easier integration in future devices.
- SanDisk's forthcoming TLC data center SSD, announced at the investor day event, will have storage capacities up to 128TB and is scheduled for shipping by Q3 2025.
- In the face of its separation from WDC, SanDisk projects potential storage capacity announcements, oversupply challenges in the first half of 2025, and a predicted easing of constraints by the second half of 2025.
