Europe's Economic Forecasting Faces Data Hurdles
European economic forecasting faces hurdles in harnessing alternative data sources due to inconsistencies in data gathering methods across countries. While Eurostat has secured retail scanner data, access to banking and credit card data remains elusive. Government agencies are exploring partnerships and innovative tools to overcome these challenges.
A key obstacle is the lack of consistency in data collection methods across European nations. This makes it difficult to use alternative data sources effectively in economic forecasting. Currently, detailed information about organizations providing data from retail cash registers or scanners to German statistical authorities is scarce.
To tackle this, government statistical agencies are encouraged to explore public-private partnerships. This could unlock opportunities for better economic data. Ensuring data availability over time, particularly government data, is crucial for longitudinal analysis.
Analyzing online job advertisements can provide labor market insights, but access to data from employment agencies and professional networks like LinkedIn could offer more precise matching of job-seeker skills and employer demands. Eurostat's agreements with retailers for retail scanner data show promise, but similar access to banking and credit card data is challenging.
Agencies may hesitate to rely on private sector alternative data sources due to uncertainty about future data availability. However, initiatives like the Center for Data Innovation's policy forum at the European Parliament are discussing ways to overcome these hesitations. ETLA, a Finnish think tank, is using innovative methods such as Internet search data to forecast immigration and economic activity.
Inconsistent data gathering methods and uncertain data availability pose significant challenges to using alternative data sources in European economic forecasting. However, initiatives like public-private partnerships and innovative tools like ETLA's ETLAnow show promise in overcoming these obstacles. By addressing these challenges, Europe can harness the full potential of alternative data sources for better economic forecasting.
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