Fighting Is Simplified in Aerial Combat According to Air Force Wargaming Leader Due to the Introduced Fighter
The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter is key to the U.S. Air Force's aim in winning demanding combined-arms conflicts, according to Maj. Gen. Joseph D. Kunkel, the force's future design leader. Extensive wargaming has shown that a blend of standoff, stand-in, and asymmetric strategies is needed to prosper in future combat, rather than merely rebuilding the Air Force of today, Kunkel said.
At a seminar hosted by the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC, Kunkel, director of force design, integration, and wargaming, deputy chief of staff for Air Force futures, stated, "The fight looks fundamentally different with NGAD than without NGAD." According to Kunkel, while he won't go into details on how the fight differs, it is significantly more advantageous when NGAD is included.
"NGAD remains an essential part of our force design, and it fundamentally changes the nature of the fight in an incredibly positive way for the Joint Force. It's a Joint Force capability."
The decision to purchase the system will likely be a joint decision across the military services, Kunkel said. If the Joint Force is committed to fighting with an NGAD to secure air superiority in challenging locations, pursuit and acquisition of the capability will be less operationally risky and provide superior capacity over other options.
However, if the nation chooses not to pursue NGAD, the nature of the fight may differ, and policy objectives might be difficult to achieve. Kunkel also noted that NGAD is one component of a broader package, requiring not only survivable tankers but survivable bases to generate combat power, if the NGAD is to function effectively.
The selected NGAD contract winner was initially expected to be chosen by the end of 2024, but former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall left the decision to the incoming Trump Administration. Kendall formerly paused NGAD last summer due to uncertainties about its requirements matching the threat and the high cost potentially crowding out other spending priorities. Since then, the unnamed NGAD competitors have been on Technology Maturation and Risk Reduction (TMRR) contracts, allowing them to maintain their design teams and refine their approaches.
Kendall's special blue-ribbon team, consisting of former Air Force chiefs of staff and stealth experts, determined that the NGAD program is necessary and should continue as planned. Alternatives considered include an F-35-like multirole fighter optimized for managing autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft.
The future Air Force is designed to target an enemy's kill chains, Kunkel stated. This means disabling the enemy's ability to identify friendly and hostile forces, direct them, provide battle management, and guide weapons. Although the NGAD requires a survivable tanker—the Next-Generation aerial Refueling System (NGAS)—Kunkel said that there are other points along the kill chain where the adversary can be attacked effectively.
Kunkel highlighted that Joint solutions are the only ones that work effectively under expected conditions. When comparing approaches, the Navy found, "That's us. We have the same problems," and the emerging "air/space/sea battle" concept appears to be taking shape.
Ten years have passed during the journey toward a new force design, Kunkel said. Initially, the focus was on new fighters and bombers, but the Air Force found that, "Just reinventing the Air Force doesn't win." Instead, the service looked at a stand-off force, a stand-in force, and an asymmetric force that targets adversary single points of failure and vulnerabilities.
Kunkel dismissed speculation that the Air Force is abandoning the stand-in fight and retreating to a stand-off force. "An all-long-range force...sounds wonderful, doesn't it?" he said. "You sit in Topeka, Kansas, you press a red button, the war gets fought. Nobody gets hurt. It's all done at long range." However, Kunkel cautioned, "It doesn't win because it just can't sustain the tempo of the fight." Long-range fires are crucial, as they provide a massive punch to the adversary, but they might not be able to sustain the needed tempo consistently, requiring something else for mass and tempo. "That's what we've found, and that's where the force design goes with this, you know, combined arms approach...We've got to generate tempo and mass," Kunkel stated.
Though Kunkel couldn't elaborate on the asymmetric capabilities the Air Force is pursuing, they will make it possible for the Air Force to be persistent in high-threat density locations. The Air Force conceded it can no longer achieve air superiority across an entire theater against a peer adversary, and in the new approach, "we do pulses and...achieve air superiority at times and places of our choosing with some of the asymmetric capabilities."
Analysis has shown that adversaries are strong at achieving air superiority, filling a gap the U.S. has had. "What we're finding is you can deny the adversary freedom of maneuver in the air domain, and that's what our Joint Force wants. What we can't have is, we can't have the adversary free to roam around, free to have their own air superiority. We've got to deny them from doing that." The "magic happens when you weave those things together into what we're calling a 'mission fabric.'" This integrated approach allows the Air Force to observe, analyze, and learn quickly, enabling rapid development of winning capabilities.
- The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, equipped with advanced technology, is integral to the U.S. Air Force's strategy for employing a blend of standoff, stand-in, and asymmetric tactics in future conflicts.
- Kunkel, the Air Force's future design leader, emphasized that NGAD could potentially provide superior capacity over other options in securing air superiority in challenging locations, if the Joint Force commits to pursuing and acquiring the capability.
- NGAD's importance extends beyond the Air Force, as the Joint Force may require a joint decision for the acquisition of the system, considering it a component of a broader package for combat power generation, including survivable tankers and bases.
