Gas shipments for residential water heaters in the U.S. showed an uptick in June, while air conditioner deliveries saw a significant decline.
The HVAC and water heater market is witnessing robust growth, with key players like Carrier Global, Trane Technologies, Daikin Industries, and Johnson Controls capitalising on trends such as electrification, energy efficiency, and regulatory shifts.
In June, commercial gas water heater deliveries remained virtually flat at 46,706 units, while commercial electric water heater units increased by 3.7% to 87,050 units. Residential electric storage water heater shipments also saw a growth of 1.9%, reaching 419,323 units. However, residential gas storage water heater shipments only increased by 0.7%, totalling 340,647 units.
Central air conditioner shipments, on the other hand, experienced a decline of 8.1% in June, amounting to 2.50 million units. This downward trend continued for air-source heat pump shipments, which decreased by 16.0% to 363,499 units. Yet, heat pump shipments overall rose by 4.0% to 2.08 million units. Central air conditioner shipments also saw a significant drop of 26.3% in June, reaching 477,270 units.
Despite these fluctuations, the market outlook remains positive. The U.S. HVAC services market alone is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6%, reaching $38.8 billion by 2030. This growth is driven by factors such as new construction, retrofitting of aging equipment, stricter energy-efficiency standards, and expansion of smart/IoT-enabled services.
The broader HVAC services market globally is expected to expand by $46.03 billion from 2024 to 2029, with a CAGR of approximately 8.8%. This growth is supported by rising surface temperatures, energy consumption concerns, and the push for efficiency.
The industry is also facing a refrigerant phase-out, with low-GWP refrigerants like R-454B gaining attention. Companies are innovating to meet new EPA and global climate regulations, aligning their product development with environmental mandates.
Notably, Daikin Industries,Ltd. held its Q1 2026 earnings call transcript, and Adobe, Amazon, and Johnson Controls have been highlighted by Morgan Stanley for their strategic adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Johnson Controls is also in a pact to repurchase $5B of ordinary shares.
These trends underscore a strong and evolving market where companies focusing on electrification, energy-efficient systems, smart technologies, and regulatory compliance are positioned to perform well. As key players, Carrier Global, Trane Technologies, Daikin Industries, and Johnson Controls are likely to benefit from these trends by leveraging innovation, broad product lines, and service expansion within HVAC and water heating sectors.
- The finance sector might observe significant investments in the HVAC and water heater industry, given the robust market growth and the projected CAGR of 6.6% for the U.S. HVAC services market, reaching $38.8 billion by 2030.
- As the industry transitions towards lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants, finance institutions could provide capital for companies that innovate, producing refrigerants like R-454B to meet new EPA and global climate regulations.
- In light of the growing interest in artificial intelligence (AI) and smart technologies, the technology sector may see increased engagement with HVAC and water heating companies, such as Adobe, Amazon, and Johnson Controls, which have been recognized for their strategic AI adoption.
