Government Shutdown Predicted to Last 11.5 Days as Job Cuts Fall but Remain High
On Monday, October 2, 20XX, prediction markets estimated the length of the ongoing government shutdown to be 11.5 days. Meanwhile, U.S. stock markets saw mixed performance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing slightly higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) inched up modestly. Job cuts fell significantly in September, but remain high year-to-date, marking the highest level since 2020.
The U.S. Treasury yields saw mixed movements on Monday. The 2-year yield (US2Y) rose by 1 basis point to 3.54%, while the 10-year yield (US10Y) dipped by 1 basis point to 4.09%. In the stock market today, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) ended the day up by 0.39%, while the Dow Jones (DJI) advanced by a modest 0.17%. The S&P 500 finished the day higher by 0.06%.
Job cuts in the U.S. fell by 37% in September, according to the Challenger job cuts report. However, year-to-date (YTD) job cuts are the highest since 2020, and hiring is at its lowest level since 2009. This indicates that while there's some improvement, the job market still faces significant challenges.
The prediction market Kalshi saw the odds of the government shutdown lasting 11.5 days increase on Monday. Seven out of the 11 S&P sectors finished in negative territory, with Energy struggling the most. Despite this, the broader market indices managed to close higher, suggesting a degree of resilience amidst ongoing uncertainty.
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