Increases in overall economic efficiency spurred by Artificial Intelligence within the Group of Seven nations' economies
In a recent study, it has been suggested that countries with high exposure to Artificial Intelligence (AI) can expect significant productivity gains. The research, which focuses on G7 economies, considers three scenarios for AI adoption and productivity gains, and updates future adoption path estimates for AI in these nations.
The study refines and extends the AI productivity estimates for countries beyond the United States, including other G7 economies. It builds on a micro-to-macro framework, combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates.
High AI exposure countries, such as those specialising in highly AI-exposed knowledge intensive services like finance and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) services, are expected to see stronger productivity gains. Across the three scenarios, the projected annual aggregate labour productivity growth due to AI ranges from 0.4-1.3 percentage points in countries with high AI exposure.
On the other hand, projected gains in several other G7 economies are up to 50% smaller than those in high AI exposure countries, due to differences in sectoral composition and assumptions about the relative pace of AI adoption. The study updates future adoption path estimates for AI in various G7 economies.
The research also harmonises current AI adoption rate measures among firms across different G7 economies. This harmonisation is crucial for a fair comparison of AI's impact on productivity across these nations.
Canada, a G7 country, has made significant investments in AI since 2017 and plans to invest further billions, aiming to leverage AI for economic transformation and productivity improvements, especially in sectors like electricity grid operations. There is also global recognition that AI is a core technology expected to reshape economic competitiveness and industry productivity over the coming decades.
However, the study does not provide specific numerical projections of annual aggregate labor productivity growth due to Artificial Intelligence (AI) for each G7 economy over a 10-year horizon. For more precise projected annual labor productivity growth figures by country and explicitly linked to AI over a 10-year horizon, specialized economic forecasting reports from institutions like the OECD, International Monetary Fund, or related economic research bodies may be consulted.
In conclusion, the study underscores the potential of AI to drive productivity gains in G7 economies, particularly in countries with high AI exposure. However, the exact growth rates for labor productivity attributable specifically to AI across all G7 nations remain to be seen, with more detailed projections available in specialized economic forecasting reports.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a core technology expected to reshape economic competitiveness and industry productivity over the coming decades, as highlighted by the research. High AI exposure countries, such as those specializing in knowledge-intensive services like finance and Information and Commun communication Technology (ICT) services, are expected to see stronger productivity gains due to AI.
