Navigating the Complexity of Space Debris Control: Emerging Mini-Satellites and Growing Risks
The Space Traffic Management (STM) mission is facing significant uncertainties due to proposed drastic budget cuts by the U.S. government. These cuts could potentially halt the development of the civilian-led Traffic Coordination System for Space (TraCSS), a critical programme under the U.S. Department of Commerce.
TraCSS provides essential space situational awareness (SSA) and space traffic coordination (STC) services for commercial satellite operators. By mitigating collision risks in an increasingly crowded orbit, TraCSS plays a crucial role in ensuring the safe and efficient operation of satellites. With over 450 companies and industry coalitions expressing strong opposition to the proposed funding cuts, the future of TraCSS hangs in the balance.
If TraCSS development is terminated, responsibility for traffic management would revert entirely to the U.S. Space Force. While the Space Force traditionally handled space traffic, it is now stretched thin with expanding military space missions. TraCSS offers advantages by integrating data from military, commercial, international, and operator sources to improve orbit determinations, a critical aspect as the volume and complexity of space assets grow.
One of the major challenges STM faces is the rapidly increasing number of smaller satellites, particularly in low Earth orbit (LEO), where thousands are launched each year. This proliferation, alongside over a million debris fragments larger than 1 cm already in orbit, makes LEO extremely congested and raises collision risks. The growth in private sector activity and new entrants further complicates coordination and emphasizes the need for robust, shared management systems to ensure sustainable and safe space use.
Internationally, there is no central authority regulating orbital slots or resolving conflicts, intensifying the challenge. Europe is actively addressing STM and space sustainability, recognizing the strategic importance of space autonomy and the crowded orbital environment. Efforts such as the forthcoming EU Space Act aim to provide legislative frameworks for sustainable space traffic management and international cooperation.
The STM mission is at a critical juncture, balancing innovation, budgetary realities, and the urgent need to manage a rapidly evolving orbital environment safely. The traditional space traffic monitoring system, run by the Space Force, is under increasing strain due to the growing numbers of smaller satellites in orbit and growing threats. The Space Surveillance Network, built for collision avoidance, is now operating under the assumption that some actors and satellites may be trying to avoid detection.
The move to transfer the collision avoidance mission to a civilian agency, begun seven years ago, is intended to free up the military to focus on military tasks. However, the Trump administration's budget proposal for fiscal 2026 zeroes out funding for the effort to transfer the STM mission from the Space Force's Space Operations Command to the Office of Space Commerce in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Cubesat confusion occurs when multiple small satellites enter orbit from the same launch vehicle, and up to 20% of them remain uncatalogued up to 250 days after the launch. The Space Force is working on fusing data from different phenomenology together to make the best use of their strengths. A visual transponder, called a "blinker," has been showcased as a potential solution. It's a tiny LED that can be easily located and identified, even on a 10 cubic centimeter cubesat.
Mark Skinner, the senior project leader for space traffic management at the Aerospace Corp., outlined a series of growing challenges faced by the traditional STM system, including "the COLA Gap" and "cubesat confusion." The COLA Gap is the period of time between the end of the Collision on Launch Assessment (COLA) and the time when a new satellite is catalogued by Space-Track.org. The resources for space surveillance are limited, and self-reporting by orbiting objects can save these resources for high-value assets that need them.
Radar and passive radio frequency detection each have advantages and disadvantages, and both are being considered for use in the Space Force's STM system. The Space Force shares this data for free with allied governments and some commercial space operators. The Space Force recognizes the need for quick response times to potential threats, but currently lacks a single phenomenology that can solve the entire flight problem.
The Space Force has over 200 SSA information sharing agreements, with about 30 being with allied nations and the remainder with commercial space operators. The Space Force conducts Space Traffic Management (STM), also known as Space Situational Awareness (SSA), through its Space Surveillance Network. The incident involving China's test of a fractional orbital bombardment system in 2021 was a wake-up call for the Space Force, highlighting the need for different detection technologies or phenomenologies to respond effectively.
In summary, the current state of the STM mission is uncertain due to proposed budget cuts, which could halt the development of TraCSS. Without TraCSS, responsibility for traffic management would revert to the U.S. Space Force, which is already stretched thin with expanding military space missions. The future of STM depends largely on whether this civilian program can be sustained, as industry and military emphasize the need for continued, integrated STM solutions combining multiple data sources. Europe is also actively addressing STM and space sustainability, recognizing the strategic importance of space autonomy and the crowded orbital environment.
- The U.S. Space Force traditionally handles space traffic but is currently stretched thin due to expanding military space missions.
- TraCSS provides essential space situational awareness and space traffic coordination services for commercial satellite operators, reducing collision risks as space assets become more numerous and complex.
- The proposed budget cuts could halt the development of TraCSS, transitioning space traffic management back to the U.S. Space Force, presenting challenges for an already overburdened military force.
- The European Union is addressing space traffic management and space sustainability, recognizing the strategic importance of space autonomy and the crowded orbital environment.
- The growth in private sector activity and new entrants further complicates space traffic management, emphasizing the need for robust, shared management systems to ensure sustainable and safe space use.
- The Space Force recognizes the need for quick response times to potential threats but currently lacks a single phenomenology that can solve the entire flight problem, emphasizing the need for innovation and cooperation in the field of space and astronomy.
