The Army's Future Operating Plan for Post-2050 Conflict
The United States Army is gearing up for a new era of warfare, with a focus on adapting to complex and uncertain future environments that include evolving domains such as space and information warfare, and rapid technological advancements.
Embracing Multi-Domain Operations (MDO)
A key element of this approach is the integration of operational concepts that involve land, air, sea, space, and cyberspace domains simultaneously. Exercises like Arcane Thunder 25 illustrate this integration, incorporating robotics, drones, high-altitude balloons, and enhanced command and control (C2) technology to test these ideas in practice across continents.
Preparing for an Unpredictable Future
The Army Future Command's pamphlet "Future Operational Environment: Forging the Future in an Uncertain World 2035-2050" outlines the need to prepare for unpredictable threats, including counterspace operations, information warfare, and anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons—which are emerging as pivotal in future conflicts. China's anticipated use of ASAT capabilities by 2035 exemplifies this challenge, highlighting the Army's consideration of space dominance as integral to future warfighting.
Adaptability and Technological Innovation
The future concepts extend to modernization efforts ensuring weapons and platforms are not only technologically advanced but also agile to respond to surprise or rapid shifts in the battlefield. This includes incorporating robotic and unmanned systems, data sharing, predictive maintenance, and advanced sensors for multi-domain situational awareness.
Collaboration with Joint and Allied Forces
The Army recognises that future wars will require seamless interoperability with other branches like the Navy and Air Force and international partners to manage complex multi-domain engagements effectively.
Masking: The Key to Survival
A crucial aspect of the Army's approach is masking, the full-spectrum, multi-domain effort to deceive enemy sensors and disrupt enemy targeting, essential to survive and win in the modern battlespace.
Intellectual Leadership and Adaptation
The next concept must suggest, rationalise, and intellectually lead change in adapting to such changes. A proven method to think about the range of operational problems our Army might face in 2050 is the alternative futures method of critical thinking. Involving policymakers in this exercise is the most effective way to communicate results and sensitise them to key uncertainties.
Expanding the Vision of Combined Arms
The operating concept for 2050 and beyond must expand the vision of combined arms at the tactical and operational levels of warfare. Concepts and experimentation must lead to a more comprehensive view of combined arms with no branch or service bias.
Adapting to the Emerging Strategic Environment
The 2050 operating concept must account for potential factors derived from an emerging strategic environment, including the constant battle over information and the narrative, the challenge of getting to the fight, and the integration of technology while conforming to law and moral principles.
In summary, the Army’s approach for operating concepts by 2050 centers on preparing for a highly integrated, technology-enabled, and multi-domain operational environment with high adaptability to uncertain threats, especially in areas like space and information warfare. This approach is iterative and tested through exercises that incorporate emerging technologies and domain integration to meet the challenges of future wars.
Security and counterterrorism operations are crucial considerations in the new era of warfare, with the Army focusing on adapting to complex and uncertain environments. Special operations, drones, logistics, and national security are key elements that will be enhanced through technological advancements in warfare.
The Army Future Command's "Future Operational Environment" pamphlet emphasizes the need for preparation against unpredictable threats, such as counterspace operations, information warfare, and anti-satellite weapons, which could become pivotal in future conflicts. China's anticipated use of ASAT capabilities by 2035 is an example of this challenge, indicating the Army's focus on space dominance for future warfighting.
Innovation in adaptability is another essential aspect, with modernization efforts ensuring the Army's weapons and platforms are not only technologically advanced but also agile to respond to surprise or rapid shifts in the battlefield. This includes the use of robotics, unmanned systems, data sharing, predictive maintenance, and advanced sensors for multi-domain situational awareness.
Collaboration with joint forces like the Navy and Air Force, as well as international partners, is vital for managing complex multi-domain engagements effectively.
Masking, the full-spectrum, multi-domain effort to deceive enemy sensors and disrupt enemy targeting, is a crucial aspect for survival and winning in the modern battlespace.
Changes in this new era of warfare require intellectual leadership and adaptation, with critical thinking methods like the alternative futures method being used to predict the range of operational problems the Army might face in 2050. Involving policymakers in this exercise is the most effective way to communicate results and sensitize them to key uncertainties.
Finally, the operating concept for 2050 must account for potential factors derived from an emerging strategic environment, including the battle over information and the narrative, the challenge of getting to the fight, and the integration of technology while conforming to law and moral principles.
